AGI Might Hit a Wall in Training Economics
soumitrashukla9 · x · 2026-07-17
This post relays a prediction that by around 2030, we will either sprint to AGI or the industry will become completely commoditized:
- One possibility is the rapid emergence of recursive self-improvement, bringing exponential progress.
- Another is that AI competition becomes so fierce that training future frontier models approaches guaranteed losses.
- In this scenario, while we get access to cheaper and better models, deteriorating ROI might mean no one can afford the next massive training run, thereby stalling the progress toward AGI.
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