Coding Model Market Share and Price Predictions
herbiebradley · x · 2026-07-16
This post recaps a predictive discussion regarding **"By the end of 2028, which will consume more tokens for coding in SF startups: frontier vs. non-frontier models?"** The debate centers on two main aspects: - **Token share**: Which category will become the primary coding model - **Price premium**: How much of a pricing advantage frontier models can maintain per token The core disagreement ultimately hinges on the "**bitter lesson / generalization**"—whether you believe that superior general-purpose capabilities will continue to dominate the coding landscape.
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