Cheap Inference Will Reshape Software Winners
socialwithaayan · x · 2026-07-16
The core argument of this post is that cheap inference will create new winners, and not just among model providers.
The author suggests that when the cost of "intelligence" drops low enough, small software teams can afford massive backend decision-making that was previously impossible. Many valuable future products will look incredibly ordinary on the surface because the real intelligence is buried behind every click. The post includes a price comparison: Anthropic at roughly $56 per million tokens, OpenAI at $26, Meta at $1.50, xAI and Google at $1, and Chinese models at $0.50.
Conclusion: Instead of just watching model companies, pay more attention to software products that bake the cost advantage of inference directly into their workflows.
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