AI's Impact on Employment Won't Happen Overnight
chris_j_paxton · x · 2026-07-15
Citing a paper on the pace of technology diffusion, the author pushes back against the extreme narrative that AI will rapidly eliminate jobs.
Key points: Even under the most aggressive assumptions, the model by Jones and Tonetti suggests labor market impacts won't emerge until 2045. Their 2021 research indicated that about 90% of technological fields progress slower than Moore's Law, with over two-thirds advancing at rates below 15%. Therefore, assuming all technology accelerates like Moore's Law leads to wildly exaggerated AI impact scenarios.
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