Distillation Could Reshape the Open-Source Model Landscape

MoonL88537 · x · 2026-07-15

This reply argues that a "distillation whitepaper" could be a crucial turning point. It’s not just another methodology paper, but could bring new understanding to why models work and how to scale them further.

The author predicts that a roughly 3T parameter base model, combined with another iteration of open-source models and a significant enough distillation paper, could make the entire open-source landscape "very different" within 6–12 months. They add that with the right UX, current open-source models are already "good enough" for most people's problems.

Related event: Open-weight models already 'good enough'? A 3T base and a distillation whitepaper seen as the watershed(5 posts)→

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