Debating Plan A's Compute Overcapacity Risk
AdrienLE · x · 2026-07-10
This post comments on a core concern regarding Plan A: dry tinder.
The author argues that Plan A will accumulate massive excess compute and algorithmic capacity, potentially accelerating an intelligence explosion. The proposed countermeasure is Mutually Assured Compute Destruction (MACD). However, they are skeptical about two things: whether MACD can be executed quickly and reliably, and whether nations will actually adhere to such constraints. The author also notes providing feedback on the Plan A draft, adding that while the final version improved its analysis of the dry tinder issue, the core problem remains.
More from AGI Musings
- Bindu Reddy says the industry still lacks a way to train 20T models and scale post-training RL — bindureddy · 2026-07-22
- Advanced AI Models Are Becoming Impossible to Plug and Play — emollick · 2026-07-22
- The Thimble and the Waterfall: AI's Data Bottleneck and Feedback Loops — dyamins · 2026-07-22
- Researcher Admits Kurzweil Was Right About AI Scaling Laws All Along — davidmanheim · 2026-07-22
- AI is still not at a maturity plateau, the author argues — generativist · 2026-07-22
- Essay argues LLMs are externalized metacognition, not standalone intelligence — lnsip9reg · 2026-07-22