Toby Ord: AI Time Horizons Exhibit Near-Linear Scaling
tobyordoxford · x · 2026-07-03
Toby Ord's analysis: Every 10x increase in input compute yields roughly a 5x performance boost, which is quite close to linear. Because of this, time horizons have become one of the few areas demonstrating that AI performance improves exponentially over time, even though required investments are also growing exponentially.
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