Doubling Speed of Frontier AI Task Horizon Impacted by Budget
tomekkorbak · x · 2026-07-03
The AI Security Institute (AISecurityInst) found that budget significantly impacts conclusions when measuring the horizon of frontier AI tasks: the estimated doubling speed under a 50M tokens budget is about 60% higher than under a 2.5M tokens budget. At 2.5M tokens, the frontier horizon is about 2 hours, whereas at 50M tokens, it reaches 14 hours. This indicates that true trends can only be observed under sufficient budgets.
Related event: Frontier AI Task Duration Doubles, Slowed by Budget Constraints(3 posts)→
More from Safety
- California creates standards for independent AI auditors to verify lab safety testing — VraserX · 2026-09-11
- Researcher questions AI safety eval firm, citing 'blatantly sloppy' security and monitoring — Kyrannio · 2026-09-11
- Class action accuses Anthropic of overselling Claude subscriptions with deceptive usage multipliers — The Decoder · 2026-09-11
- MD shows buying lab media requires background checks, calling AI bioweapon doom scenarios implausible — Ghost_Pilot_MD · 2026-09-11
- Spotify chatbot withstands 2023-era jailbreaks but happily writes song code — AaronBergman18 · 2026-09-11
- A 99%-real doctored photo fools detectors: the earring problem in visual forensics — henkvaness · 2026-09-11