Doubling Speed of Frontier AI Task Horizon Impacted by Budget
tomekkorbak · x · 2026-07-03
The AI Security Institute (AISecurityInst) found that budget significantly impacts conclusions when measuring the horizon of frontier AI tasks: the estimated doubling speed under a 50M tokens budget is about 60% higher than under a 2.5M tokens budget. At 2.5M tokens, the frontier horizon is about 2 hours, whereas at 50M tokens, it reaches 14 hours. This indicates that true trends can only be observed under sufficient budgets.
Related event: Frontier AI Task Duration Doubles, Slowed by Budget Constraints(3 posts)→
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