Researcher Rethinks Bayesian Odds on P vs NP After Confidence Blunder

Geoffrey Irving admitted his >99% confidence in ETH involved model error from conflating SETH with ETH, prompting a recalculation of P vs NP odds; a related Bayesian analysis using a ChatGPT-generated prior yields a 10:1 likelihood ratio in favor of P=NP.

2026-10-28 ~ 2026-10-28 · 2 related posts

• A Bayesian take on P vs NP: likelihood ratio 10:1 favors P=NP — jessi_cata · 2026-10-28
• Researcher admits SETH/CSETH mixup, revises odds in P vs NP debate to >80% on CSETH — geoffreyirving · 2026-10-28