Oxford's Toby Ord rebuts Chollet on exponential AI progress

Oxford researcher Toby Ord pushed back on claims of exponential AI progress, arguing halving benchmark error rates reflects logistic rather than exponential growth, though metrics like METR time horizons and revenue are genuine exceptions.

2026-10-09 ~ 2026-10-09 · 3 related posts

• Toby Ord pushes back on Chollet: halving benchmark error isn't exponential AI growth — tobyordoxford · 2026-10-09
• Toby Ord clarifies: ECI tracks logistic growth, not exponential — tobyordoxford · 2026-10-09
• Toby Ord: Most AI capability metrics grow logistically, not exponentially — tobyordoxford · 2026-10-09