Lawyer's Flawed Probability Reasoning Sparks Bayesian Debate

Lawyer @dilanesper's posts treating pieces of evidence as independent and merging their probabilities drew quick correction from AI researcher Quintin Pope and others, who argued Bayesian reasoning is required to properly combine evidence.

2026-09-20 ~ 2026-09-20 · 2 related posts

• Five pieces of 25% evidence add up to 76%? Lawyer's probability take sparks Bayesian correction — dilanesper · 2026-09-20
• Bayes rule vs. naive probability: X users clash over combining fingerprint and witness evidence — QuintinPope5 · 2026-09-20