Two-Year-Old Bet on Models Beating Humans Comes True

A two-year reminder set by ARC Prize co-founder Greg Kamradt came due: Noam's bet that general models would surpass human performance on a benchmark within two years has paid off, suggesting an even shorter AGI timeline.

2026-09-15 ~ 2026-09-15 · 2 related posts

• Noam's 2-year-old bet that general models would beat humans on a benchmark pays off — GregKamradt · 2026-09-15
• Two years after o1-preview, Greg Kamradt revisits his benchmark bet: AI timelines have shortened — burny_tech · 2026-09-15