Dev Bets Most Frontier Lab Employees Don't Believe in 10% Doom Risk

Developer Aleksa Gordic publicly bets that most employees at OpenAI and Anthropic do not genuinely believe in a 10% probability of AI-caused human extinction within a decade, suggesting a gap between stated risk figures and internal beliefs.

2026-09-12 ~ 2026-09-12 · 2 related posts

• Dev Bets Most OpenAI/Anthropic Staff Don't Buy p(doom)=10%, Sees Higher Neuroticism in AI Safety — gordic_aleksa · 2026-09-12
• Frontier lab staff mostly reject p(doom)=0.1, but selection pushes doomers out, researchers argue — nabla_theta · 2026-09-12