Saxe and Ord Debate Whether LLM Incident Losses Grow Exponentially

Joshua Saxe and Toby Ord clashed over whether LLM incident losses follow exponential growth. Saxe explained his regression minimized residuals in log space, and later conceded the moving average of losses might indeed be exponential, though his original chart did not show that.

2026-09-09 ~ 2026-09-09 · 3 related posts

• Toby Ord Pushes Back: LLM Misalignment Damages Trend Is Exponential — tobyordoxford · 2026-09-09
• Saxe Responds to Toby Ord: Regression Minimizes Residuals in Log Space — joshua_saxe · 2026-09-09
• Saxe Concedes: Moving Average of Damages May Be Exponential, Chart Just a Quick Tweet — joshua_saxe · 2026-09-09