Geoffrey Irving estimates ~50% AI catastrophe risk, favors stopping

Geoffrey Irving argues that slow takeoff puts humanity in a better position than expected, but estimates the probability of AI catastrophe at around 50%, high enough that stopping should be the optimal strategy.

2026-08-28 ~ 2026-08-28 · 2 related posts

• Geoffrey Irving: Slow takeoff puts us in a more favorable evidence-wise position — geoffreyirving · 2026-08-28
• Geoffrey Irving: 50% catastrophe probability makes "stop" the optimal strategy — geoffreyirving · 2026-08-28