Bayesian Prediction Updating Method Using LLMs

A new prediction method combines LLMs with Bayesian updating by using LLMs to estimate step-wise log-likelihood ratios for recursive log-odds updates. The approach introduces a tempering parameter, with detailed results and baselines available in Appendix J of the paper.

2026-07-14 ~ 2026-07-14 · 3 related posts

• LLM-Based Bayesian Forecasting Update Method — sirbayes · 2026-07-14
• Supplementary Results for Bayesian Forecasting Paper — sirbayes · 2026-07-14
• Bayesian Forecasting Details in Appendix J — sirbayes · 2026-07-14