METR 质疑 Anthropic 风险报告:1.97倍加速率被淡化表述为「不到2倍」

sjgadler · x · 2026-11-08

METR publicly compared the public and redacted versions of Anthropic's risk report, arguing its framing is misleading:

The public report says leading indicators point to meaningful acceleration starting early-to-mid 2025, "though by less than a factor of 2."
METR's calculation from the private report's figures implies an acceleration rate of 1.97x — a number that doesn't appear in the private report; METR derived it by combining the report's estimates of current and historical rates of progress.
METR argues readers would interpret "less than a factor of 2" as meaningfully below 2, when "around 2" would be more accurate.
METR's own analysis gives a reasonable range of 1.3–2.8x with substantial methodological uncertainty; Anthropic redacted this discussion from the report.

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