本·托德盘点最准 AI 预测者：普遍预计 2028-2029 超人类 AI
ben_j_todd · x · 2026-10-22
Ben Todd names Carl Shulman, Daniel Kokotajlo (AI 2027), Leopold Aschenbrenner (Situational Awareness) and Ryan Greenblatt as the most prescient AI forecasters — nearly all expect broadly beyond-human AI in 2028-2029.
Shulman may have gotten the basic picture right earliest (see his 2023 Dwarkesh interview), and these are among the only people with detailed written forecasts that have held up while most others wildly underestimated progress. His read: AI company leaders are more right than most on direction but chronically overoptimistic, now claiming AGI in 1-3 years.
所属事件:Ben Todd 盘点最准 AI 预测者：共识指向 2028-2029 超人类 AI(2 条相关)→
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