Checkout upsells are 100%+ of Amazon's retail profit — why merchants fear agentic commerce
davidyin44 · x · 2026-11-15
A Theory Ventures chart (from FY25/FY26 10-K filings) explains why merchants and platforms dread agentic commerce: checkout ads and upsells are the profit engine.
- Amazon (non-AWS retail): $68.6B sponsored product ads = 12% of revenue but 100% of operating profit — core retail runs near break-even
- United Airlines: $8.0B ancillary fees = 14% of revenue, 102% of operating profit
- Dell Technologies: $23.1B ProSupport & attach services = 20% of revenue, 127% of operating profit
If AI agents comparison-shop and buy at pure product prices, platforms lose the cross-subsidy that funds their profits — the real economic motive behind resistance to agentic commerce.
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