NVDA beat aggressive 2021 sell-side estimates by 4x — modeling exponential demand is hard
abhiadesai · x · 2026-11-15
Responding to a critique of aggressive SpaceX sell-side estimates ($4.6B Starship revenue in '31, -$5.3B EBITDA minus CapEx against a $1.9T EV), the author shows how badly such forecasts have missed before:
- Anthropic wasn't even a year old in late 2021; it's now a giant slayer across sectors
- A June 2021 BofA report pegged NVDA FY2026 revenue at $48.5B — actual was $215.9B, over 4x higher
Takeaway: new demand from radical technologies is extremely hard to model; never underestimate the exponential.