Jensen Huang's NVIDIA return: Kalshi says 9%, FutureSearch AI puts it at 7%
NathanpmYoung · x · 2026-11-15
Jensen Huang resigned as NVIDIA CEO/president/board member on Nov 12 over conduct and legal issues (reportedly misleading the general counsel about ties to a Megaspeed executive; the company is under DOJ investigation for smuggling restricted chips to China), with CFO Colette Kress as interim CEO. The betting game on his return:
- Kalshi gives Huang a 9% chance ($7m liquidity); Rene Haas leads at 26%, Ian Buck at 18%
- AI forecasting tool FutureSearch estimates only 7% he ever returns: ousters over misconduct (Kalanick-style) almost never reverse, unlike slump-driven comebacks (Jobs, Dell)
- But pressure is real: Altimeter's Brad Gerstner and Atreides' Gavin Baker publicly urged the board to keep the door open; the "Return Jensen" petition passed 104k signatures, with 1,600+ supportive internal comments
The thread doubles as a live test of AI forecasting tools vs prediction markets.
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