Frontier researchers eye recursive self-improvement within 12 months, complicating the chip-export debate
morganlai · x · 2026-11-15
The author recounts frontier researchers arguing recursive self-improvement (RSI) could arrive within 12 months — potentially compressing decades of scientific progress into months while also accelerating cyberattacks and bioweapons research, prompting talk of coordinated pauses. He pushes back on Jensen Huang's chip-sales-to-China logic: dependence on TSMC never stopped China's domestic chip push, and the real question may be who reaches RSI first. Nvidia's shareholders, US tech leadership, and US national security are three different optimization problems.
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