Toby Ord plots capability vs log(compute), assumes logistic scaling curves
tobyordoxford · x · 2026-11-14
Toby Ord (Oxford Martin School, FHI) discusses scaling-curve methodology on X with Ramez Naam, Josh You, Ben Todd and Allan Dafoe: alongside time on the x-axis, one can also put log(compute) on the x-axis. He admits he isn't 100% sure these curves are logistic — we usually only see a middle portion that looks roughly linear — but proceeds under the logistic assumption, noting it should be checked. He credits Allan Dafoe for working out much of the derivation.
A notable methods discussion among leading scaling-forecast researchers.
Related event: Oxford's Toby Ord: RL Compute Needs 10,000x Boost to Lift Benchmark Scores(17 posts)→
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