Toby Ord explains why ECI and benchmark success odds are a log-transform pair
tobyordoxford · x · 2026-11-14
Toby Ord explains that ECI and the odds of success on a random benchmark task are a paired measure of the same quantity, related by a logarithm — analogous to Elo vs. win probability, decibels vs. W/m², or earthquake magnitude vs. energy. He credits Allan Dafoe for working out much of the derivation.
Related event: Oxford's Toby Ord: RL Compute Needs 10,000x Boost to Lift Benchmark Scores(17 posts)→
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