Toby Ord defends ECI benchmark: inverse-logistic transform exposes exponential odds growth
tobyordoxford · x · 2026-11-14
Oxford researcher Toby Ord explains that the Extended Capability Index (ECI) applies an inverse logistic transform to each benchmark so that logistic growth in probability appears linear.
His argument: logistic growth in probability always means odds are rising exponentially, so a model's odds of success on a random benchmark task are empirically improving exponentially over time — just like task horizons. Linearized ECI is simply a way to visualize that exponential trend.
Related event: Oxford's Toby Ord: RL Compute Needs 10,000x Boost to Lift Benchmark Scores(17 posts)→
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