Toby Ord: Logistic Benchmark Growth Means Success Odds Rise Exponentially Over Time
tobyordoxford · x · 2026-11-14
Toby Ord offers a mathematical observation in a discussion of AI capability trends: when the probability of success on a benchmark grows logistically over time, expressing it in odds means the odds rise exponentially. So, like task horizons, the odds of success on a random benchmark task are empirically observed to be improving exponentially with time — the logistic S-curve becomes a clean exponential line in odds space.
Related event: Oxford's Toby Ord: RL Compute Needs 10,000x Boost to Lift Benchmark Scores(17 posts)→
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