Toby Ord argues odds reformulation explains why AI task horizons grow exponentially with ECI
tobyordoxford · x · 2026-11-14
Philosopher Toby Ord proposes that benchmark scores, viewed as probabilities of success on random tasks, become mathematically cleaner when expressed as odds: a logistic benchmark curve maps to exponential growth in odds.
He uses this to give a theoretical rationale for why task horizons may grow exponentially with ECI, in a discussion with @ramez and @benjtodd on scaling trends.
Related event: Oxford's Toby Ord: RL Compute Needs 10,000x Boost to Lift Benchmark Scores(17 posts)→
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