30-day BTC forecasting agent test: right 16/30 days, confidence badly miscalibrated
Careless_Scallion_82 · reddit · 2026-11-14
A Redditor ran an LLM agent daily for 30 days to forecast BTC's next 24h (inputs: 7-day prices, headlines, funding rates) and scored it every day:
- Direction correct 16/30 days — a coin flip
- Confidence almost never below 65% or above 80%, regardless of conditions
- Ranges systematically too narrow: when it said 80%, price landed inside only 40% of the time
- After big news days it overreacted the next morning, often getting direction backwards
The written explanations sounded highly convincing despite the poor calibration. The author asks what others have found helps: more data, better prompts, or anchoring.
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