Neel Nanda replots pre-training compute multiplier: ~23x projected by late 2026
NeelNanda5 · x · 2026-11-14
DeepMind researcher Neel Nanda shared a replotted chart of the pre-training compute multiplier (code) over time, showing both log and linear y-axis versions.
The data: 1.1x in Jul 2024, 1.5x by Apr 2025, 6.2x by Apr 2026, with the trend arrow ending at 23x. The linear-scale version makes the late-stage steepening far more visceral than the log plot — a nice reminder of how axis choice shapes how scaling trends land.
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