AI forecasters debate whether laypeople should defer to experts on timeline updates
eli_lifland · x · 2026-11-14
AI forecaster elilifland debates how the public should update AGI timelines based on new models. His interlocutor questions whether people who never deferred to anyone should now defer to forecasters. Lifland argues it's reasonable for people who haven't studied the object-level to defer to forecasters, and asks for a real or fake case study of someone making a bad update this way. He observes most readers just update toward generically shorter timelines without understanding anything about the models — which may or may not be the problematic pattern.
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