Critics slam AI Futures update for boosting confidence in a model that mispredicted METR evidence
JacquesThibs · x · 2026-11-14
This thread discusses the AI Futures report update reacting to the METR report: AI Futures called the findings "very unexpected," and Ryan Greenblatt admitted he was "seriously wrong" about speedup.
Reposter JacquesThibs argues it seems absurd to update strongly toward an approach whose own creators admit predicted the evidence poorly — and suggests this should instead count as a further update against complicated handcrafted formal models in general, citing the historical failure of Bio Anchors.
Related event: METR's "AI doubles AI research speed" report sparks timeline debate(8 posts)→
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