Gary Marcus: The GenAI Bubble Is Popping — Nvidia Down 29% in Six Months
AWS ML Blog · rss · 2026-11-14
Gary Marcus argues his warnings since August 2023 are coming true: generative AI suffers from soaring training costs (the Claude 5.5 family reportedly cost $10B to develop), poor reliability, weak ROI studies, and a "Klarna effect" of rehiring humans after extravagant AI claims — while price wars keep profits elusive.
Market signals: Nvidia is down 29% over six months, Oracle 35%, CoreWeave 54%; Anthropic's hoped-for $2T IPO valuation may now land near $1.5T. While live on CNBC discussing Nvidia risk, breaking news broke that neocloud N-Scale was in trouble.
Core thesis: with Colette Kress as interim CEO, Nvidia may stop acting as everyone's banker and propping up neoclouds. OpenAI, Anthropic, Nscale and CoreWeave have never been demonstrably profitable, and standing on their own may not be pretty. He admits hypey valuations lasted longer than he expected, but believes the market has finally caught on to the economics.
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