Microsoft outage ETA: cloud outage durations follow lognormal/Pareto, so expect it to last as long again
esrtweet · x · 2026-11-13
esrtweet analyzes how long Microsoft's cloud outage will last: research on cloud outage duration distributions shows they are not Gaussian but closer to lognormal or Pareto. Practically, an outage like this should be expected to last about as much longer as it has already lasted — currently roughly another 12 hours, and each extra hour should add about an hour to the recovery estimate.
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