DeepMind researcher says short AI timelines are social contagion, not evidence
NathanpmYoung · x · 2026-11-13
- Google DeepMind researcher Ege Erdil argues researchers are updating to shorter AI timelines due to social dynamics rather than evidence: "They care way more about what the people I respect think" than the actual evidence in Anthropic's acceleration report.
- He calls the underlying metric "objectively weak" — a made-up measure whose Y-axis isn't even well understood — and dismisses redacted evidence from a company with "a track record of being paranoid."
- The post quotes Daniel Kokotajlo's opposing take: the new METR report implies an intelligence explosion by 2027, five months ahead of the AI 2027 scenario, leaving him "scared, sad, and angry."
Related event: Researchers Push Back on METR's AI Acceleration Findings(4 posts)→
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