One chart shows why 'highly likely' means wildly different odds to different people
burny_tech · x · 2026-11-13
A shared chart maps everyday probability phrases ("probable," "unlikely," "better than even") to the numbers people actually assign, with wide boxplot spreads showing the same phrase means very different odds to different people. Probability is mathematical, but its language is subjective — with real consequences for AI confidence estimates, medical risk communication, weather forecasting, and financial decisions.
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