Smuggled compute estimated at 1.5 GW, yet Chinese frontier labs may hold only ~3%
teortaxesTex · x · 2026-11-13
teortaxesTex analyzes China's smuggled compute: reportedly 1.5 GW of new chips got through, but frontier labs like DeepSeek and Kimi appear to have captured only 3.3%. Citing SemiAnalysis, he notes total installed Chinese compute is 24 GW, so even five labs at 10 MW each would be 0.2% — 'not export controls failing, but a disturbing triumph.'
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