METR time-horizon fit called too pessimistic, redone — with a superexponential meme chart
lxrjl · x · 2026-11-13
After readers argued the earlier extrapolation of METR's task-time-horizon trend was too pessimistic, the latest data confirmed their intuition and the model has been redone. The attached chart is a joke "superexponential fit" — plotting OpenAI HF, Jensen Huang's "second and third affairs," and Nathan's own tweets on a curve heading to a late-2026 singularity — poking fun at how any time series can be fitted into a singularity prophecy.
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