Stripe Economics: WFH, not AI, may explain the weak young-graduate job market
robseamans · x · 2026-11-13
Stripe Economics (Ernie Tedeschi) argues the weak US young-graduate labor market may owe more to work-from-home than to AI.
- Employment-population ratio for degree holders aged 22–26 was 88% in September 2026 — a full point below three years earlier and 1.5 points below pre-pandemic; unemployment neared 6% (vs 4% pre-pandemic) and job searches stretched to a median 12 weeks.
- Key counter-evidence to the AI narrative: young non-graduates fell slightly more despite lower AI exposure, while workers 30–49 fully recovered regardless of degree.
- AI effects are worth taking seriously but remain inconclusive; both public data and Stripe's own data point to remote work as a major factor.
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