Svwang1: data center supply chain has no guaranteed four-year recovery cycle
Svwang1 · x · 2026-11-13
In his latest piece, Svwang1 argues that unlike Bitcoin's hard-coded four-year halving cycle, there is no rule guaranteeing the storage/semiconductor/data center supply chain recovers within four years after a downturn.
Historical evidence: Micron only reclaimed its 2000 peak in 2024, and Intel and Cisco not until 2026 — after drawdowns exceeding 80% and even 95%. The takeaway for AI compute investors: don't assume cyclical bottoms always recover quickly.
Related event: Investor Warns Semiconductor Boom May Take 25 Years to Return(2 posts)→
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