Belfer Center report pre-mortems the first major AI-enabled terrorism event with 9 falsifiable predictions
StephenLCasper · x · 2026-11-13
A Belfer Center report by Stephen Casper et al. examines which concrete choices by frontier AI developers, distributors, and governments could enable the first major AI-enabled cyber/bio/chemical terrorism event. Key points:
- Government AI risk institutes (UK AISI, US CAISSI) now treat such events as credible
- The paper traces model-lifecycle mistakes and outlines two hypothetical attack scenarios
- It concludes with 9 falsifiable predictions about how the first attack would unfold
The author declined suggestions to turn predictions into Polymarket/Kalshi markets.
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