Why conditional prediction markets are hard: the NVDA-Jensen case
lxrjl · x · 2026-11-12
Quoting a suggestion that Polymarket launch two conditional markets on NVDA's price—one if Jensen Huang stays, one if he's ousted—the author argues this is a good example of why conditional forecasting is so hard and so easy to overrate. The original idea: let shareholders see whether markets think removing Jensen would raise or lower the stock before actually deciding.
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