OpenAI falls to 3rd on Epoch Capabilities Index as benchmark growth accelerates 1.9x
teortaxesTex · x · 2026-11-12
For the first time in a year, OpenAI sits 3rd on Epoch AI's Capabilities Index, with Astra behind Fable 5.2 and Gemini 4 Carbon. @teortaxesTex estimates OpenAI is roughly 6 weeks behind on release cadence, speculating its internal HPIM model beats Model 4. The accompanying METR chart (AECI) shows benchmark scores growing at 1.9x the pre-October 2025 rate (95% CI 1.5–2.8, +15/yr → +29/yr) once internal models and benchmarks are included.
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