repligate blasts bio-anchors report: "outside view" forecasting is dead wrong
JacquesThibs · x · 2026-11-12
repligate revisits the famous bio-anchors report with its charts and seemingly rigorous models, arguing people deferred to it only to feel informed — and it turned out comically wrong, with the community only updating after Eliezer's rebuttal.
His core claim: "outside view" reasoning is the mistake itself. Don't reduce dimensionality in any legible way — including citing an expert's bottom line and averaging numbers. If you can only understand what's happening through such legible abstractions, you don't understand it. He adds the report's prose itself felt like an "EA drivel" steering vector cranked into brain-damage territory.
A sharp, opinionated take on the long-running EA/rationalist forecasting methodology debate.
More from AGI Musings
- Adam Scholl: strong evidence AI is useful, weak evidence it generalizes — gleech · 2026-11-12
- "SF is right long-term, NYC right near-term, nobody has a clue mid-term" on AI — austinc3301 · 2026-11-12
- Andrew Critch: stop calling extinction risks "improvement"—RSM vs RSI matters — AndrewCritchPhD · 2026-11-12
- Canada tech vacancies down 46.9% from peak; software engineer roles fell 72% — RichardsonDx · 2026-11-12
- Any US State Could Legalize AI Safety Coordination via Parker Immunity — TinfoilTricorn · 2026-11-12
- The new Turing test: can a human with AI pass as intelligent? — cocktailpeanut · 2026-11-12