Polymarket Puts Only ~40% Odds on Next Gemini Flash (3.9+) Shipping by Year-End
Polymarket · x · 2026-11-12
A Polymarket market on whether Google ships the next Gemini Flash (3.9+) model by December 31 trades at roughly 40-47% Yes, with over $53K in volume.
- The Flash line iterated fast in 2026: 3.6 in July, 3.7 in mid-August, 3.8 on September 2 — an average cadence of 105 days
- Yet 70 days after 3.8, no 3.9+ has shipped; Google instead released Gemini 4 Carbon on November 10 for frontier reasoning and cybersecurity
- Traders lean toward an early-2027 release for the next high-volume efficient model, with dev conferences or API pricing shifts as potential catalysts
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