How to adjudicate if an intelligence explosion 'happened': GDP under 5%?
teortaxesTex · x · 2026-11-12
MatthewJBar proposes concrete criteria for adjudicating whether an intelligence explosion has "happened": if most of us are still alive, real GDP growth is below 5%, no molecular nanobots exist, no von Neumann probes have launched, and Alzheimer's remains uncured — can we still say it happened?
NunoSempere responded that he'd love to see high-stakes bets on this, with both sides wagering significant fractions of their net worth. The thread pushes AGI debate from vague philosophy toward falsifiable, bettable metrics.
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