Being 9 months behind takes about 3 years to close, analyst Matt Sheehan argues
nitarshan · x · 2026-11-12
Matt Sheehan replies to Kevin Xu on the '6 or 9 months behind' framing: it's plausible to be 9 months behind today, but closing that gap takes roughly 3 years.
The key point: distance behind and time to catch up are different things—the latter is far larger because the leader keeps moving forward.
More from AGI Musings
- The new Turing test: can a human with AI pass as intelligent? — cocktailpeanut · 2026-11-12
- CS faculty job market 2025: AI keeps driving demand, but only at schools that can afford to grow — fortnow · 2026-11-12
- Heresy is still a human advantage: AI won't voice what society knows is wrong — JeremyNguyenPhD · 2026-11-12
- Gary Marcus Slams Dario Amodei's 'Age of Miracles' Rhetoric as Cult-Like — GaryMarcus · 2026-11-12
- Tyler Cowen Interviews Terence Tao — burny_tech · 2026-11-12
- OpenAI chief economist: AI agents still early for most firms, job impact overstated — soumitrashukla9 · 2026-11-12