FOOM Debate Revisited: Panel of AI Timelines Forecasters Hosted 15 Years Later
Jsevillamol · x · 2026-11-12
@yminsky hosted a panel on AI timelines featuring Daniel Kokotajlo, Ege Erdil, Jsevillamol, and Ryan Greenblatt — framed as a follow-up to the FOOM debate held 15 years ago. Panelist Jsevillamol also presented on extrapolating straight lines on graphs, a nod to the forecasters' trend-extrapolation methods for predicting AGI timelines.
More from AGI Musings
- Gemini runs Blood on the Clock Tower benchmark nearly autonomously in new work — eliebakouch · 2026-11-12
- Pedro Domingos coins 'Dario's law': compute needed for AI also grows exponentially — pmddomingos · 2026-11-12
- Jaron Lanier in NYT: Silicon Valley is sabotaging AI with doom narratives — databoydg · 2026-11-12
- The more you use AI agents, the more you're the bottleneck: humans process just 10 bits/s — soumitrashukla9 · 2026-11-12
- Matt Pocock: Clear business descriptions are half-built software in the AI era — mattpocockuk · 2026-11-12
- Researchers Push Efficiency-Gain Metrics Over Raw Benchmarks to Measure AI Progress — eliebakouch · 2026-11-12