AI risk community splits over 'intelligence explosion next year' claim as credibility war erupts
connoraxiotes · x · 2026-11-11
Tamay Besiroglu argued it's positive that the AI risk community now largely agrees an intelligence explosion is likely next year — but predicted that in a few years this will clearly not have happened, these people will be largely discredited, and discussions will become saner.
Tom Davidson pushed back: they're claiming >50%, not >95% probability, and it should be possible to disagree without treating them as insane or deserving of being discredited — a very high bar the community is nowhere near crossing. The exchange exposes a visible fault line inside the AI risk community over intelligence-explosion timelines and how much epistemic credit its proponents deserve.
More from AGI Musings
- "Skipping your 401k over fantasy x-risks means you're innumerate" — inductionheads · 2026-11-11
- Beff Jeffzos: data centers face nuclear-power-style stigma from decel mind virus — beffjezos · 2026-11-11
- Founders quit profitable YC startup, went salary-less for 2 years to warn on AI risk — jeremiecharris · 2026-11-11
- Human edge over frontier AI: the willingness to commit heresy — JeremyNguyenPhD · 2026-11-11
- François Fleuret to biologists: look how cocksure other fields were before AI — francoisfleuret · 2026-11-11
- Could Recursive AI Improvement Compress Millennia of Progress into One Decade? — VraserX · 2026-11-11