AI's critical uncertainties can't be settled by data, Manheim backs Kokotajlo's forecasting record
davidmanheim · x · 2026-11-11
Risk researcher David Manheim argues that the critical uncertainties about AI futures are underdetermined by available data. Absent domain-specific verification of predictive models, he says we should fall back on general forecasting track records — and Daniel Kokotajlo of the AI Futures report beats almost everyone on that front.
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