Forecasting debate: uncertainty is no excuse for delaying AI decisions, argues davidmanheim
davidmanheim · x · 2026-11-11
davidmanheim pushes back on "we don't know enough to decide" in a discussion with Ramez, MTSlive and Daniel Kokotajlo: uncertainty is exactly why decision analysis exists, and deferring decisions is itself a choice that privileges the status quo.
He adds that while critical uncertainties are underdetermined by data, absent per-domain model verification one should fall back on general predictive track records — where he thinks Daniel Kokotajlo beats almost everyone.
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